Just how
long does it take for gangsters to be mistaken for aristocrats?*
In the latest
edition of For Whom The Book Tolls, DK Powell & I discuss two seminal books
for our age – End Times by Peter Turchin and The Leopard by
Giuseppe di Lampedusa.
Watch the podcast here: https://youtu.be/948ZNduVtCc
In End
Times Turchin claims to have invented a new science – ‘cliodynamics’,
effectively the crunching of large sets of historical data that suggests
history is predictably cyclical after all.
So far, so psychohistory & Hari Seldon / Isaac Asimov. ‘Real’ historians of my acquaintance when
told about him tend to sigh and say ‘Oh no, not another one . . .’
But Turchin
is originally a studier of animal population behaviours, and
he’s brought scientific rigour to his thesis.
His point:
the accumulation of wealth upwards leads to 3 things fatal for any society –
gross inequality, the immiseration of the majority of the population, the
over-production of new elites who compete for power. Result: political disintegration followed by the persistence of the underlying conditions.
Now, do
those three things remind you of any societies either on this side of the
Atlantic or the other?
And on the subject of new elites replacing old, it’s time for you to read
– or re-read - one of the great historical novels, Giuseppe di Lampedusa’s The
Leopard. Set in Sicily during the 1860s
revolution that led to the unification of Italy, it charts the managed decline –
and persistence by other means – of Fabrizio, Prince of Salinas, whose nephew
Tancredi recognises reality early on – “If we want things to stay as they are –
things will have to change.”
The novel
has been filmed twice – once in 1963 by Italian aristocrat and Marxist Lucino
Visconti, starring Burt Lancaster as the prince, Alain Delon as Tancredi and
Claudia Cardinale as Angelica. This
version is hypnotically ravishing & I warmly recommend it.
Available via
Amazon Prime: https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/video/detail/B00FYGUMKS
There’s
also a new adaptation available on Netflix that really opens out the book’s oblique,
interior narratives – we get a lot of wartime action scenes - and re-casts
Tancredi’s romantic relationships in a way that’s not encumbered by the social
codes of 19th century Sicily (if you so much as glance at a girl with
living male relatives, be prepared either to marry her or to fight for your life).
Available via Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/81392676
You can find End Times here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Times-Counter-Elites-Political-Disintegration-ebook/dp/B0BFB71KPC
And The Leopard here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Leopard-Revised-material-Vintage-Classics-ebook/dp/B0041RRH6S
*Two generations at most, in either direction, judging by the above.